Screenwriters are Like Fine Wine

In the back of the book Write Screenplays That Sell: The Ackerman Way, there is a section that lists every Screenplay that has ever won an Academy Award. What's incredible fascinating is that it lists the ages of the Screenwriters.

I scoured through every year and what I found was that most of the Screenwriters were in their 40's or 50's when they won an Oscar for their work.

At the very low end of the spectrum was Matt Damon (27) and Ben Affleck (25) who are the youngest Best Screenplay Oscar winners in history for their film Good Will Hunting.

So why don't young Screenwriters win? Aren't there plenty of USC Grad students pumping out Award winning scripts?

Is it a game of odds?

Out of 10,000 screenwriters, only 1000 might actual know what they are doing and be trained in the art. If there are 1000 proficient Screenwriters, probably only a hundred of them are good enough to be entrusted with creating a story worthy of a $100 million budget.

Those 100 films end up in theaters, with only 30 of them doing well and getting attention.  Out of those 30, about 12 of them will get the more minor Golden Globe or Writer's Guild Awards.  Out of those 12, five will be chosen for Academy nomination, and out of those five, one will reign supreme.

So, talent aside, you have a one in 10,000 chance of getting an Oscar for your screenplay.  If you have exceptional talent, you improve your odds to about 1 in 100.

Maybe you have to fail several times before you win the golden prize. Or, maybe it takes until your 40's, and have written dozens of screenplays, to have the maturity needed to win at a game that is slightly rigged.

But, then again, is it about the Oscar or is it about the audience and the "look on their faces?"